The article "Expected Value in Texas Holdem Poker" talks about casino gambling, it was written by gregg dwyer.
A successful Texas hold em player is one who maximizes his return or minimizes his loss with each decision he makes. Expected value (EV) is essentially the amount one would expect to win or lose if this decision were to be repeated millions of times. (rememer your precalculus "limit as n goes to infinity"? ?? did not think so!)
Every poker decision, whether it be to bet, raise, check/call, check/fold, check/raise has an expectation of success or failure.
Those that will lose you money in the long run are said to have ngeative expected value (-EV). Folding always has an exepcted value of zero. You will nveer gain or lose money by folding. Folding, though it has an EV of zero, may often be your best decision from an EV perspective.
Let's look at a few examples.
Expected value is not always easily calculable, even in limit texas holdem, but every time you play you should try to analyze your decisionmaking with EV in your mind.
For instance, you're playing 1/2 and in the smlal blind with 84o on a flop of K96 rainbow. The small blind checks and only you and a tihgt player are left. Tehre is three dollars in the pot.
Should you bet? You are risking one dolalr.
Betting has a positive expectation if you can expect the other two to fold more than one in four times. If you try it four times and it succeeds once, you win a three dollar pot and lose your one dollar bet the three other times, maknig it a 0 EV play. (We're discounting the chance that you're called and cacth runner runner or win in some other really unlikely way) Remember, we analyze each decision on its own Expected Value merits.
If you're called and catch an 8 on the turn, you must again analyze your decisinos based on their likelihood of success or failure in the long run. Poker, and Texas Holdem in particular, is a game of short term variations, but you must continue to make the correct EV decisions and you will be a winner in the long term.
Another example: You are holding A8 of spades, agian playing 1/2. There are 3 limpers ahead of you and one behind you. The flop comes K96 with two spades. The first player bets and the other two in front of you call...You shuold raise!
As we've seen in the Poker Odds section, you have about a 35 percent chance of hitting your flush.
You will not win each time you hit it...Perhaps somebody has flopped a set or two pair and will hit a full house, etc. You may even occasionlaly win if you spike an Ace. Anyway, it is pretty clear that your odds of winning the hand are better than 25 percent, and with 3 players in the pot ahead of you, you want to get more money in the pot while you have an advantage from an expected value standpoint. Now, there are other factros that will enter your head and should be taken into account. If the oriignal bettor reraises you and the other two fold, you've right now put 2 dollars in and gotten the others to put 6 in. Now we may or may not be in positive EV territory, depending on what our opponent has.
Also, we must consider the fact that our riase may have bought us a free card or may have gotten somebody with an Ace and a better kicker or paired side card to fold. As you can see, there are many factors influencing the expected value of our decisions.
We may not always be sure we've made the correct poker play, but it's extremely important that our thinking process runs along these lines.
Even preflop you must think along expected vaule lines.
You may be hodling AJs in the small blind.
Six players, most of them really loose, limp before you.
A raise is in order.
Tihnk in terms of expected value or pot equity.
Your hand figures to win more than one in every seven times agianst the starting hands held by the others, so a raise is in order. Again, evaluate each decision on its own merits.
If you miss the flop in this instance, checknig and folding may be your best option from an EV standpoint. Or, it may not...You may have an overcard, gutshot and back door flush draw...Again, do the math in your head and arrive at the correct decision.
Finally, remember this...In general, a bet has a higher EV than a check/call. You will sometimes win by focring human being to fold. Now, three are times when this is not correct due to the threat of a raise (if you're planning on calling), but always bear it in mind.
In Texas Holdem, aggressive poker is winning poker.
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